Six Games In: What the Numbers Say About the Knicks' Title Defense

Here's the number I keep coming back to on this off Sunday: four. Through six games the Knicks have scored 642 points and allowed 646, per ESPN's team stats. That's it. A 2-4 record for the defending champs looks ugly in the standings, and it is, but the four losses came by 6, 4, 9 and 5 points, per the ESPN box scores. This isn't a team getting run off the floor. It's a team losing the margins, and the margins are fixable.

I'll be honest, after the 0-3 start I was in full panic mode. Six games is still a small sample, but it's enough to stop guessing and look at where the gap actually lives.

The stuff that's working

Start with the part that should calm everybody down. The Knicks are winning the glass, and it isn't close. They're averaging 47.7 rebounds a game to their opponents' 42.3, and they've grabbed 87 offensive rebounds to 54 for the other guys across the six box scores. That's an extra five-plus possessions a night just from crashing.

The balance I always harp on is there too. New York has scored 248 points in the paint to 236 allowed, and here's a wild one: the Knicks have made exactly 83 threes, and so have their opponents, on almost identical volume (236 attempts to 234), per ESPN. Paint even, threes even, rebounds way up. On paper that's a winning recipe.

Cat is a huge part of it. Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds a night on 50-of-87 shooting, and he's 12-of-29 from deep, per ESPN. That five-out look with Cat spacing the floor is still the best weapon this team has, and the 27-and-20 night against Detroit (https://knicks365.com/blog/knicks-pistons-recap-towns-27-20-first-win) was the reminder. Jalen Brunson is at 25.5 a game, and when he got going in Chicago, 38 points and 6-of-10 from three per the ESPN box score, the whole thing looked like June again.

So why are we 2-4?

Two reasons, and they jump right off the page. First, the Knicks just aren't making shots at the same rate. They're at 41.9% from the field against 45.1% for opponents, per ESPN. Brunson is 51-of-129 overall, which is under 40%, and that's not the guy who carried us through the playoffs. Second, the turnovers. New York has 87 of them to 75 for its opponents. Brown's message after Philly, per RealGM, was "We're trying to get a home run every time we get the ball. We have to hit singles." When you're piling up extra possessions on the glass and handing a bunch of them right back, the rebounding edge disappears.

Then there are the starts. Brunson said after the Sixers loss, per RealGM, "It's just starting the game that way. That has to be our biggest point of emphasis going forward." Towns talked about the team "getting out the quicksand" in the fourth. You can't spot good teams a lead and then expect magic every night.

And yeah, we have to talk about Mikal Bridges. He's at 6.2 points a game on 15-of-45 shooting and 7-of-24 from three, per ESPN. In Boston he went 0-for-8, and Brown told SNY he's "got to keep shooting them." I still want Bridges and OG together on the wings. Size and length on the wings is a big part of how we won a title in June. But I'm not going to pretend the numbers are pretty, and the bench is making the case for minutes: Landry Shamet (12-of-29 from three) and Deuce McBride (11-of-27) are both shooting over 40% from deep, per ESPN. The good news is Bridges has 12 points in two of his last three games, including 5-of-8 in Philly per NBA.com, so maybe the floor is rising.

The verdict

The numbers say this team is closer to 4-2 than its record. Win the glass, play even in the paint and from three, and you'll win a lot of games once the turnovers drop and the shooting climbs back toward normal. The Nets come to the Garden on Monday at 0-5, per ESPN's standings, and that's the perfect night to start hitting singles.

If you missed it, read the Morning After from Philly (https://knicks365.com/blog/knicks-76ers-recap-lebron-late-cup-opener-2-4), compare this to our 0-3 numbers breakdown (https://knicks365.com/blog/knicks-0-3-by-the-numbers-where-the-points-went), and cast your vote in the biggest-fix fan poll (https://knicks365.com/blog/knicks-fan-poll-biggest-fix-2-3).